Tales of the Sausage Factory – Page 35

What To Expect From The National Broadband Map.

Harold February 11, 2011 February 11, 2011Life In The Sausage Factory, Tales of the Sausage Factory, The Stimulus Package (ARRA)

Hey everyone, remember the National Broadband Map? As part of the Broadband Stimulus in the American Recover and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), Congress let the National Telecommunications Information Administration (NTIA) use a chunk of money to fund a national broadband map that they had ordered NTIA to create in 2008 as part of the Broadband Data Improvement Act (BDIA). Congress ordered NTIA to finish the project by February 17, 2011. NTIA handed out a chunk of change to make it happen back in 2009, and no one has heard much about it since.

NTIA has now leaked that they plan to release the first iteration of the map on February 17 � the day Congress ordered them to release it. This gives NTIA serious bragging rights at the next social get together with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). �Yes, we got it done on time.� Asst. Secretary Larry Strickling, head of NTIA will say to FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski over a plate of nachos. �It would have been so awkward to have to ask for a month extension. We spent all our grant money on time as well, despite having to totally invent a multibillion dollar program and a tracking system from scratch. Really, staying on time isn�t that hard. You just need to have a plan. Speaking of which, how goes the National Broadband Plan implementation? Still on track?� At which point Genachowski will smile politely and head off for another mojito.

My predictions for the National Broadband Map below:

First Step Reforming FCC’s Universal Service Fund? An Honest Evaluation of the Goals and Trade offs.

Harold February 8, 2011 February 8, 2011Life In The Sausage Factory, Series of Tubes, Tales of the Sausage Factory

The problem of reforming the Universal Service Fund (USF) without Congressional direction means working without clear guidance on what the FCC should, institutionally, hope to achieve. �Broadband!� Is the usual answer from reform proponents. �Basic broadband for everyone! And eliminate waste. And spur investment. And promote innovation. And create jobs. And education. And �� Well, you get the idea.

Listening to the FCC Commissioners at the open meeting, and reading through the released materials, my sense is the FCC has decided that we ought to maximize the number of people who have access to a threshold level of broadband. That�s not necessarily a bad goal. At the same time, the general impact of the proposed reforms favor larger carriers providing minimal service over smaller, local providers that may provide significantly better service.� That may still end up being the best way to maximize �bang for the buck� and may ultimately benefit the largest number of Americans. But if we are going to make that choice, we ought to do it explicitly, and in a way that minimizes the harm to those who did a good job under the old rules. Even better, we ought to consider whether we will really get the broadband bang for the USF buck the FCC appears to expect by reverting to what is, in essence, a return to the universal service model we had under the AT&T monopoly and the Communications Act of 1934 rather than the more locally-oriented model adopted by Congress in the Telecommunications Act of 1996.

Can We Please Maintain Perspective, Or “Julius Genachowski Is Not A Death Eater.”

Harold February 3, 2011 January 25, 2012Tales of the Sausage Factory

I do not believe I am writing this blog post. But then, we appear to be living in an age when even the most ridiculous things will be believed –provided it confirms our worst and most cynical expectations.

In the last few days, I have been hearing the most ridiculous rumor, which only grows more lurid in the retelling. It goes like this. After the Comcast/NBC merger was approved, FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski and his staff got together after hours in the Chairman’s office and toasted the merger with champagne. My response to this was “yes, after which they feasted together upon the living hearts of independent programmers and drank their blood from crystal goblets, laughing manically and toasting to evil.” Because really, this is the kind of nonsense I’d expect to see in some over the top made-for-cable movie. So I tweeted: “I am inclined to doubt rumors that Chairman’s staff met w/Comcast lobbyists after merger to become Death Eaters.”

My intent, of course, being to show how ridiculous the Comcast/NBC rumor was. To my surprise, I have now heard that some people seem to think my intent with this tweet was to confirm the rumor!

I find this rather stunning, but perhaps not surprising in the overall zeitgeist of popular culture about DC these days. But it’s important to maintain perspective. There is plenty of room to disagree with how Genachowski is running the FCC, that’s how the policy game works. Nor have I been shy in speaking up when I think Genachowski and the agency have gone off-course and put politics before policy. And while I was relatively pleased with the Comcast/NBC online video conditions, I would much rather have seen Copps’ view prevail and seen the merger rejected. But, as I said repeatedly when the Republicans were running things, that I disagree with someone does not make them a sellout. Really.

So let us please have a bit of a reality check on some of the wilder rumors. But to be clear.

1. Contrary to assertions by the Mubarak government and some protesters, Genachowski is not responsible for fomenting unrest in Egypt through his control of the American media.

2. Genachowski was not really born in Kenya.

3. And no, I do not believe that Genachowski and his staff gathered together in the Chairman’s Office to drink champagne after the Comcast/NBC merger closed. Really.

Stay tuned . . . .

Why Did The White House Support Reallocating D Block? It’s Smart Politics.

Harold February 2, 2011 February 2, 2011Life In The Sausage Factory, Spectrum, Tales of the Sausage Factory

The announcement that the White House that it would support reallocating the D Block � the 10 MHz of spectrum left over from big broadcast band auction of 2008 (the 700 MHz Auction) � to public safety use rather than auction it for commercial use defies conventional wisdom on two fronts. First, the National Broadband Plan called for an auction of D block to commercial providers as a means of providing critical spectrum for broadband, using the revenue to fund the construction of the public safety network, and giving public safety access to the rest of the 700 MHz band. Given that the Administration generally supported the FCC�s assessment that we have a looming �spectrum crisis� (although they took no position, until now, on D Block), why pull 10 MHz of prime spectrum ready for auction out of contention? Second, conventional wisdom holds that because of deficit concerns, lust for auction revenue will drive spectrum policy. But the White House not only endorses taking prime spectrum off the market, it wants to spend additionally billions on public safety infrastructure (under the FCC�s original plan, the auction of D Block would fund the build out of an interoperable national public safety network). So what happened?

What’s A POTUS SOTU Shout Out On Wireless Worth?

Harold January 26, 2011 January 26, 2011Life In The Sausage Factory, Spectrum, Tales of the Sausage Factory

Last night, the wonkiest corner of telecom policy experienced its 15 picoseconds of fame when President Obama invoked spectrum policy in his State of the Union (SOTU) Address. In nerdness terms, this would be like James Franco and Anne Hathaway pausing before the Best Picture Oscar to announce this year’s Nebula Award for Best Dramatic Presentation.

Needless to say, I am uber-pleased to have the geekiest of Presidents acknowledge the wonkiest of my issues. But does it do any actual good? I explore this below . . . .

What the DoJ Documents Tell Us About the Comcast/NBCU Merger

Harold January 24, 2011 January 24, 2011Cable, Life In The Sausage Factory, Media Ownership, Series of Tubes, Tales of the Sausage Factory

In all the hoo ha about the Comcast/NBCU Merger, few folks troubled to read the Department of Justice�Competitive Impact Statement,�Complaint, andConsent Decree. That�s rather unfortunate, as these documents sets forth a straightforward case under the antitrust laws for program access conditions for online competitors and for network neutrality. Here�s the short version:� Comcast pre-merger makes almost 30 times more money from providing cable service than from programming revenues. Even adding all of NBCU�s revenue, Comcast will still make more than twice as much from selling cable service ($34 billion) as from programming ($16.9 billion). Anyone who can do basic arithmetic would therefore conclude that yes, Comcast�s incentive to protect its cable business from erosion by online distributors (or even from traditional rivals) outweighs the potential gain from increasing programming distribution. As an added bonus, for those ideologically committed to believing otherwise, turns out Comcast�s own documents agree with the simple arithmetic and not the fun theoretical models their experts submitted. Which is why (among other reasons) DoJ continued oversight is not merely something extra. It really matters.

Lets break this out some below �

Three Potential Black Swans for Telecom 2011

Harold January 10, 2011 January 10, 2011Life In The Sausage Factory, Series of Tubes, Tales of the Sausage Factory

So with 2010 finished and 2011 now thoroughly under way, it�s time to play Prognosticate Me! Mind you, anyone can predict �spectrum will remain a focus� and �USF reform will loom large.� The fun lies in trying to pick the surprises. So I have selected 3 potential “black swans” for 2011. The term comes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book about the high impact of low probability events.

I’ve selected three highly unlikely events that could have huge impact in 2011. First, the FCC could get serious about making online video accessible to virtual MVPDs (“MVPD”=multichannel video programming distributor, which is the fancy way to say any pay TV provider like cable or satellite) and new technologies. Normally betting on the FCC to play anything other than King Log while the incumbents play King Stork is a long-shot, unless the FCC actually has to act. Here, the need to renew the program access rules means the FCC will need to look at the state of the video market, and creates a forum for these issues.

Second, I’m betting that the FCC will continue to look at the underlying issues in the Comcast/L3 interconnection dispute long after the Comcast merger gets done, possibly rolling the issues raised here with the never ending proceeding on special access reform. Why would the FCC look into these issues when the FCC hates this sort of controversial stuff and has never wanted to look at, let alone regulate, internet backbone traffic? Because the there is (literally) too much riding on this. Comcast/L3 is much more a symptom of fundamental change in the economics of internet transport than about any two actors, and the pressure for the FCC to at least know what’s going on and figure out how it impacts the economics of Internet backbone transport — and therefore by extension the economics of all things Internet — is going to be very difficult for the agency to ignore.

Finally, I list my favorite potential black swan, LightSquared. Odds are against them for a variety of reasons, from possible financial problems to resistance from incumbent giants AT&T and Verizon. But the system, now that it has cleared a possible show-stopping satellite malfunction, has the potential to totally revolutionize the underlying economics of wireless backhaul and wireless services by providing really cheap purely wholesale LTE service. On the downside, it may also destructively interfere with GPS systems, which could be kind of a problem according to this Motorola filing with the FCC. Either way, it looks potentially pretty disruptive.

More below . . .

After 10 Years of Struggle, Low-Power FM Will Give Thousands of New Communities A Chance To Get Their Voices On The Air.

Harold December 20, 2010 December 20, 2010How Democracy Works, Or Doesn't, Life In The Sausage Factory, Media Ownership, Spectrum, Tales of the Sausage Factory

Ten years ago, the FCC did a startling thing. It recognized that much of the rise in “pirate radio” came from frustrated demand for small, local licenses of the sort the FCC had simply stopped distributing many years before. So the FCC offered a deal to the “pirate” community: stop transmitting illegally and the FCC would create a low-power radio service. Despite fierce resistance by commercial broadcasters at the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) (and, to their eternal shame, National Public Radio, which can be just as much of a bad incumbent as its commercial sisters), the FCC adopted rules to allow 100-watt radio stations to operate on a non-commercial basis. These stations would operate on a “secondary” basis to full power stations, required to protect these stations from any interference. To create space for these new community Low Power FM (LPFM) stations, the FCC would relax the “third adjacent” spacing requirement, a mechanical rule for spacing radio station transmitters far enough apart adopted in the early days radio to ensure no interference. The FCC studied the matter and concluded that relaxing this rule would not cause harmful interference to existing full-power stations.

Needless to say, the full-power broadcasters did not give up so easily. But neither did the supporters of LPFM. It’s a story worth celebrating not merely for the result, but for what it teaches us about staying in the struggle for the long-haul.

Why Australia Is Building A National Broadband Network And the U.S. Can’t Fund BTOP Oversight

Harold December 3, 2010 December 3, 2010General, Tales of the Sausage Factory

So the Aussie’s are spending $35billion (US) to build a national broadband network (creatively named the NBN). Meanwhile, in the United States, not only did we cut $300 million from BTOP’s grant program, but it is unclear that Congress will even fund the necessary oversight of the program to ensure that stuff funded gets built. As for future funding for actual grants — ha!

There is a reason such projects now happen in other countries, where once they happened here in the U.S.

Why Network Neutrality Will Not Die (But It Doesn’t Mean We’ll Win, Either).

Harold December 1, 2010 December 1, 2010Life In The Sausage Factory, Series of Tubes, Tales of the Sausage Factory, Uncategorized

Was it only last month when network neutrality was supposedly dead, deceased, passed on, expired, gone to meet its maker, run down the curtain, and joined the bleedin’ choir invisible? Yet here we are, with a network neutrality rule teed up for a vote at the FCC’s December 21 meeting. Even more surprising, it appears that a number of long-time opponents may actually be willing to come to the table on a compromise rule, with AT&T’s Jim Cicconi practically living in the Chairman’s office for the past few weeks presumably negotiating over the details of a proposal. Mind you, if the proposed rule is too much of a compromise, network neutrality supporters will oppose it. And, even if major carriers support it, Republicans at the FCC and in Congress are dead set against it.� But for the moment, network neutrality appears to have once again gone from “totally dead” to “certain to become law.”

Truth is, network neutrality has been declared dead so many times it ought to have its own movie or television franchise. I picture Jim Cicconi as Dr. Evil staring at a garishly dressed Josh Silver as Austin Powers and saying: “But you died in that landslide election, when my Tea Party sharks with laser-beams grafted to their skulls had you trapped in their lair!” Josh flips back his hair and replies: “Network neutrality will never die, baby. It’s too shaggidelic!” Or perhaps I, in my secret identity as Perry the Platypus, will once again foil Scott Cleland as Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz as he attempts to destroy the open internet with his Close-Internet-Inator (besides, I think FCC Chair Julius Genachowski and Chief of Staff Eddie Lazarus would look cute dressed as Major Monogram and Carl). Or perhaps a looming Voldemort-eque composite of the cable industry will turn its high power lobbying wand on a Network Neutrality Harry Potter (played by Sascha Meinrath, since Ben Scott is no longer available) and asking “Why do you live?” and a defiant Meinrath answers: “Because I have something to live for!”

But while network neutrality appears almost comically unkillable, that does not mean those pushing for strong network neutrality rules� will actually prevail.� As The Mikado once observed: “it’s an unjust world, and virtue is triumphant only in theatrical performances.” Hence the concern over the actual substance of the rule and the endless last minute wrangling.

Why Network Neutrality keeps coming back from the dead but why supporters still need to pull out the stops to get a strong rule below . . . .