This is not telecom. But for the reasons I explain below, I have been struggling for days with the twin tragedies of the killing of Trayvon Martin and the killing of three Jewish children, a Rabbi, and three French soldiers in Toulouse. For me, they are inextricably linked.
Tales of the Sausage Factory:
Tales of the Sausage Factory:
My Insanely Long Field Guide To The Verizon/SpectrumCo/Cox Deal.
The more I look, poke and prod at the VZ/SpectrumCo/Cox deal the more convinced I am that this becomes one of the defining moments in telecom for 2012 – possibly for the foreseeable future. If AT&T/T-Mo represented the last stand for traditional antitrust , VZ/SpectrumCo represents the new frontier. Where AT&T was a frontal assault on antitrust by accumulating marketshare and spectrum, this hits antitrust up its blind side with collaborative agreements and fundamental questions about when can competitors decide to abandon entire markets to one another. Just about everything single issue in telecom – spectrum aggregation, video distribution, the nature of competition in the age of convergence, the interaction of antitrust and patent technology – all come together in one package so amazingly complicated and wonky that average Americans will fall asleep while you explain it to them.
So, with the help of some incredibly lame innuendos to spice things up a bit, I attempt to explain below . . . . .
My Thoughts Exactly:
Heinäsirkka, heinäsirkka, mene täältä hiiteen — another economical reposting
Don’t know why I’ve fallen into a Wetmachine non-posting funk; trying hard to get back in the swing of things. But even though I haven’t posted anything in a month or so, I’ll be Dang-blasted if I’ll let St. Urhu’s day go uncelebrated here. Attention must be paid, after all.
I don’t think I can say it any better than I did last year, (or the year before. . .) so without further ado, our best Wetmechanical salute to brave St. Urhu, who drove the grasshoppers from Finland, the land of my (some of) my fathers. And mothers.
Grasshopper, Grasshopper, buzz off why don’t ya?
That special time of year, when St. Urhu’s day elides into the name-day of St. Padraic, is again upon us. Longtime readers know that here at Wetmachine we have a special place in our hearts for this great Finno-Irish-American festival–mainly on account of I started this site and I’m a Finno-Irish American, of which there ain’t too damn many offer dere, as my late Grandfather “Pop” used to say.
Ooksie kooksi coolama vee – Santia Urho is ta poy for me!
He sase out ta hoppers as pig as pirds – Neffer peefor haff I hurd tose words!
He reely tolt tose pugs of kreen – Braffest Finn I effer seen!
Some celebrate for St. Pat unt hiss nakes – Putt Urho poyka kot what it takes.
He kot tall and trong from feelia sour – Unt ate kala moyakka effery hour.
Tat’s why tat kuy could sase toes peetles – What krew as thick as chack bine neetles.
So let’s give a cheer in hower pest vay – On Sixteenth March, St. Urho’s Tay!
P.S. The Irish, sure, will take care o’ temselves on the morrow; of that I’ve do doubt.
Tales of the Sausage Factory:
Spectrum Efficiency v. Competition Part II: Why Do Verizon and AT&T Keep Ending Up With All The Spectrum?
Recently, I talked about the tension between spectrum efficiency and competition policy in auctions. Briefly, for reasons I will elaborate below, the largest wireless providers (AT&T and Verizon) can extract more value out of a wireless license than their significantly smaller rivals (especially when we include the foreclosure value of keeping the license out of the hands of competitors). As a result, we should expect over time that the biggest wireless companies will eventually have an unbeatable edge in wireless capacity unless the FCC takes some measures to balance out the spectrum holdings.
Not surprisingly, the same problem surfaces when companies buy spectrum licenses from each other. After all, a license transfer is essentially a private auction (only with less transparency and higher transaction cost – factors that work in favor of the largest companies). We should therefore expect to see the same tension around spectrum efficiency and concern for competition policy play out in license transfers.
Two recent transactions put these concerns in stark relief: AT&T’s recent acquisition of spectrum from Qualcomm and Verizon’s proposed acquisition of licenses from Spectrumco. Both cases arguably represent an improvement in spectrum efficiency by moving the licenses from those who were ultimately unable (or unwilling) to use them efficiently to those able to pay the most for them (and therefore, presumably, extract the greatest value). At the same time, however, the transfers aggravate the existing spectrum imbalance between the largest wireless providers and competitors.
I explore the trade offs posed by these transactions, and discuss how they are essentially another version of the same spectrum efficiency v. competition policy I discussed in auctions, below . . .
Neutrino:
And Now for Your Dancing Pleasure: Flying Robots Play the James Bond Theme Song
Looks like the Robopocalypse will have a live soundtrack!
Courtesy of the Christian Science Monitor.
Tales of the Sausage Factory:
But Why Time Warner Cable’s Bandwidth Cap May Be A Good Thing. See How Complicated This Is?
So no sooner do I cast a very suspicious eye over AT&T Wireless’ new scheme to allow ap developers to pay the overage charges for users who exceed their 2 GB monthly cap when I see that Time Warner Cable (TWC) is now offering an “Internet Essentials” plan in some test markets in Texas. Customers who opt into the new 5GB/month metered plan will receive a discount. TWC also includes a meter so customers can monitor their use. Finally, customers in the metered plan can easily pay more to get more access.
While this is just a first reaction based on the TWC description, I have to say this is the kind of “metered usage” program I really like. In fact, this looks like an excellent product offering (albeit not for an ‘power user’ like myself.). I salute TWC for listening to its customers and offering something different and innovative.
So what’s so good about this metered program but I remain suspicious of other “usage based billing plans? I answer below . . .
Tales of the Sausage Factory:
AT&T Poised To Fulfill Ed Whitacre’s Vision? Charging Aps For Customers and The Future of Wireless.
It has been just over 6 years since Ed Whitacre, then CEO of AT&T, kicked off the Network Neutrality movement by famously declaring that rival services would not “use my pipes for free,” neatly side stepping the fact that customers were actually paying to “use [his] pipes” already. Because why just collect money from one side of a platform when you can collect the same money again from the other side? Well, it appears that AT&T may finally be on the verge of realizing Whitacre’s vision — at least for the wireless world. While details remain sparse, the Wall St. Journal broke a story yesterday that AT&T may “allow” application providers to pay the overage charges for customers who exceed AT&T’s arbitrary “bandwidth cap.” As my colleague John Bergmeyer pointed out over at Public Knowledge there is not much functional difference between simply charging both sides of the platform directly and giving you the first 2 GB/month and then charging you for access.
I first wrote about the problem of “Whitacre Tiering” (having a “slow lane” for the “public internet” and a “fast lane/Quality of Service (QoS)” for favored content) in the wireline context almost 6 years ago today, back when AT&T (and other supporters of such schemes) used “the exaflood” as the reason why we absolutely positively must charge service providers to reach broadband subscribers. Remember the “exaflood,” the prediction that our broadband systems would crash under the ever-rising flood of data as users, unconstrained by metered pricing, outstripped the capacity of broadband systems? Except, of course, it didn’t happen. Cable operators developed DOCSIS 3.0, DSL providers figured out how to do better, and those stuck with ruinous backhaul charges figured out other ways to manage their networks (generally in cooperation with users).
Moving to the wireless universe, we find ourselves with similar arguments that we faced six years ago — including the wireless version of the “exaflood.” Below, I consider whether the arguments for wireless make any better sense than they did when Whitacre proposed it for wireline back in October 2005.
More below . . . .
Tales of the Sausage Factory:
Why Genachowski’s Cybersecurity Initiative Is So Radical (In A Good Way)
When people think of “cybersecurity,” they usually think about the big stuff like Iranian hackers bringing down the power grid or master criminals hacking Bank of America. We associate it with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and institutions generally clustered around the military. When its gets down to the individual consumer level, we usually think of it as something entirely different, like “identity theft.” To the extent we think of any federal agency involved with protecting consumers from such “cyberfraud,” we usually think of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) going after businesses for failing to disclose that the free game you just downloaded to your smart phone will also track your location so that the folks at Target can text you when you get within 500 yards.
This has two unfortunate results. The first is that the “cybersecurity establishment” generally does not trouble itself about things like privacy or ease of use or general consumer habits. If anything, they think of users as part of the problem. Cybersecurity in this regard works like airport security. Just accept the loss of privacy and overall inconvenience as the price of security – even if it makes you much less likely to fly. After all, the mandate of the cybersecurity experts is security and protection, not promoting broadband.
The second unfortunate result is to treat consumers either as helpless victims or part of the problem. But in either case, no one thinks they have anything useful to contribute on the subject.
Which is what makes the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) new cybersecurity initiative so important, and Chairman Julius Genachowski’s speech last Wednesday such a radical and welcome addition to the cybersecurity discussion. The approach outlined by Genachowski, if followed, promises to address three key security weaknesses in the Internet in a way that actually works with the underlying principles that have made the Internet such a widespread success for everyone from the most unsophisticated end user to the most sophisticated tech giant: voluntary consensus, openness, and ease of use. By leveraging the strengths of the network to help overcome the vulnerabilities of the network, the FCC can do a lot to improve cybersecurity while simultaneously fulfilling its statutory mandates to protect consumers and promote broadband adoption and use.
More below . . .
Tales of the Sausage Factory:
Spectrum Auction Theory v. Competition Theory
As I’ve previously reported, Congress is weighing spectrum legislation as part of the Payroll Tax Holiday and Everything Else extension. One critical change pushed by House Republicans (with the enthusiastic support of AT&T, surprise surprise . . .) involves whether the FCC should be able to keep companies that have a lot of spectrum (AT&T and Verizon) from bidding on some licenses in the future. This is called “eligibility restrictions” (i.e., are you eligible to bid in the auction or not). The FCC has authority to impose eligibility restrictions now, but generally doesn’t. As the spectrum gap between AT&T and Verizon and everyone else in the wireless world gets bigger, however, there is some talk of possibly bringing them back.
Needless to say, AT&T and its supporters think this is both unfair and bad policy. Others, such as the folks at T-Mobile (now no longer being absorbed into the Bell Borg) have responded to the fairness argument. For myself, I am always deeply suspicious whenever incumbents start arguing about “fairness,” as it usually means “please consider this particular detail in a total vacuum without ever thinking about all the unfair advantages I have, and use my framing because I appeal to basic values and use sports metaphors like ‘level playing field.'” But lets set that aside and do the cold-hearted policy wonk think. As Paul Krugman occasionally likes to say “economics is not a morality tale.” And in any event, even if we decided this on “fairness,” we’d still want to know the right answers and outcomes, right?
Two usual policy arguments are advanced for no eligibility restrictions. The first is that “auctions put spectrum in the hands of those who will use it most efficiently.” The second is that auctions with open participation increase total revenue. Lets pretend for a moment the first statement is true. Based on this, I shall prove below that not only does open participation decrease revenue, but it creates a serious conflict with competition policy. If we maximize auction efficiency, it is inevitable that the largest players will win the majority of the licenses and that this problem will grow worse over time.
So meet below the line for a video blog explaining this and some serious policy trade off discussions . . . .
My Thoughts Exactly:
The Keystone XL Pipeline — A project IG-Farben would be proud of
You’ve heard of the Keystone tar-sands pipeline by now. You may not have heard that the Reactionary Right in the U.S. Senate is attempting to revive it yet again, after their last gambit failed.
We must not let this happen.
The Keystone XL Pipeline is planetary arson and intergenerational crime on an unprecedented scale.(PDF)
The arguments in its favor are all specious. At best, they are ignorant. At worst, they are dishonest and immoral.
Let me just address one of these arguments: jobs. Proponents of the pipeline say it will create jobs for Americans. And surely it will. Construction jobs that will disappear once the pipeline has been built. The permanent jobs created by this project will be in Canada. More importantly, since the pipeline itself is immoral, all jobs associated it will be morally tainted. The Holocaust created jobs too, remember. There were good jobs for chemical engineers and plant managers at IG Farben, where Zyklon-B gas was manufactured for shipment to Auschwitz and other well-engineered murder factories and crematoria.
If you find this rhetoric over-the-top, I respectfully suggest that you read up on the climate-change impact of this one project and ponder its implications. And then consider the risks of permanent damage to the Ogallala aquifer.
Please sign this petition now, and then pick up the phone and call your Senators. It won’t take long, and stopping Keystone is at least as important as stopping SOPA, PIPA and ACTA.
